Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CB 0xcb41…edaa other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$43
crypto 13% −$1
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 22% 11% -11.5%
≤30d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 22% 11% -11.5%
≤90d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 22% 11% -11.5%
all 9 -2.1% -11.4% 22% 11% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 11% -11.5%
10% -19.9% 11% -19.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$13 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $52 $36 −$17 (-32%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes 55¢ 51¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $198 −$20 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $168 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $175 −$26 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $172 +$14 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $366 −$39 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 +$48 +28%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 31¢ $40 14m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 14m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $138 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $168 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 87¢ $167 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $168 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 65¢ $149 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $175 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $186 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 73¢ $172 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 29¢ $169 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 29¢ $176 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 36¢ $152 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 42¢ $184 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $221 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $173 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 58¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 5d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.55 · official $37.60 (match) · 34 history records