Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb47…3502 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,628 (+6%) realized +$2,607 · open −$979
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 42L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day190.7pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$2,605
sports 18% +$1,202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -18.8% -26.6% 26% 26% -5.9%
≤30d 57 -18.8% -26.6% 26% 26% -5.9%
≤90d 57 -18.8% -26.6% 26% 26% -5.9%
all 57 -18.8% -26.6% 26% 26% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 26% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 23% -14.9%
15% -40.0% 21% -23.1%
20% -45.9% 19% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -40% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$660 vs −$246 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized+$2,607
Unrealized−$979
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions7
Markets (closed)57 / 64
History coverage2d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day190.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $162 $889 +$727 (+448%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $389 $1 −$388 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $194 $1 −$194 (-100%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $827 $0 −$827 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $721 −$461 -64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,335 −$1,191 -89%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $297 −$294 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,857 +$3,539 +45%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $69 +$103 +150%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,210 +$1,600 +72%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $73 +$155 +212%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $605 +$129 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $253 +$225 +89%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,101 +$748 +68%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $77 +$759 +982%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $408 +$220 +54%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 +$14 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $127 +$123 +97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $110 −$63 -58%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $265 −$265 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $145 −$143 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $567 +$1,415 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $177 +$329 +186%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$175 -88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,572 −$1,348 -86%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $63 +$496 +785%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $150 +$50 +33%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $178 −$175 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,263 −$1,984 -88%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $782 −$772 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 5¢ $13 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 37¢ $142 43m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $278 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $115 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $74 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 37¢ $173 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $277 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 72¢ $194 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $413 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $111 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 70¢ $140 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $572 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $41 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $139 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $231 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $105 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.58 · official $892.58 (match) · 435 history records