Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb4a…3abf world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$2
other 11% −$1
sports 8% +$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 23 -1.0% -10.5% 39% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 23 -1.0% -10.5% 39% 9% -9.1%
all 36 -2.5% -11.7% 47% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 11% -9.0%
10% -20.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage492d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $43 $0 -1%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -43%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $127 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $79 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $32 +$5 +14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $2 $0 -17%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Iowa vs. Illinois Mar 04 $8 +$2 +20%
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Eastern Kentucky vs. North Florida Feb 25 $8 $0 +0%
Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) Feb 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $8 −$1 -6%
Arkansas vs. Auburn Feb 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 13h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 10¢ $3 18h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $3 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $19 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $20 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $18 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $35 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $45 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records