Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb4e…9efb world 5 markets active 15h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-62%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$24
other 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.2% -52.2% 25% 0% -73.3%
≤30d 4 -47.2% -52.2% 25% 0% -73.3%
≤90d 4 -47.2% -52.2% 25% 0% -73.3%
all 4 -47.2% -52.2% 25% 0% -73.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.2% 0% -73.3%
10% -56.8% 0% -75.9%
15% -60.9% 0% -78.2%
20% -64.8% 0% -80.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -92%
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 17¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $2 14h
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 90¢ $3 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $4 14h
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 90¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $5 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 9 history records