Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb50…8b23 world 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$21
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$30
other 14% +$2
politics 1% $0
finance 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.5% -10.9% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 35 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 3% -9.8%
all 89 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -9.8%
10% -16.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -24.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage461d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $130 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $130 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $143 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $257 +$1 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 −$4 -14%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $132 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $132 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $364 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $455 −$7 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $137 −$5 -4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $136 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $320 −$6 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $398 +$8 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $545 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $133 −$9 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $202 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $321 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $135 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $538 +$2 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $19 +$3 +14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $171 +$2 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $148 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $88 −$5 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $157 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $167 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $149 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $97 −$4 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $944 −$4 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 02 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $12 −$3 -21%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $23 35m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $107 35m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $78 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $102 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $28 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $130 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $143 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $143 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $101 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $129 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $129 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $129 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $26 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $27 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $81 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $132 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $114 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records