Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcb52…952b politics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$1
economics 29% $0
crypto 15% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage101d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 1h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 20d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 24d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 30d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 31d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $96 38d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 39d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $97 41d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 42d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 45d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $99 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $99 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $99 71d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $100 71d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $100 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $100 77d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $100 84d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $100 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $100 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records