Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcb56…16d4 world 17 markets active 1d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$420 (+21%) realized +$433 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$361
14 days+$361
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$744
politics 23% −$333
finance 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +111.7% +91.6% 100% 100% +92.5%
≤30d 5 +56.0% +41.2% 80% 80% +63.0%
≤90d 14 +17.0% +5.9% 64% 64% +12.1%
all 14 +17.0% +5.9% 64% 64% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 64% +12.1%
10% -4.3% 57% +1.4%
15% -13.5% 57% -8.4%
20% -22.0% 57% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$104 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage73d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $140 $127 −$13 (-9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $150 +$144 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $170 +$217 +128%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $186 +$100 +54%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $50 −$9 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $150 +$77 +51%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $324 −$320 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $200 +$118 +59%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $80 +$51 +64%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 08 $100 +$117 +117%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $189 +$126 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $294 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 45h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $50 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $150 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $301 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $226 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $156 26d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $12 29d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $41 29d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 29d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $50 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $60 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $86 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 34d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 35d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 46¢ $41 35d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 35d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 38d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 48¢ $102 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 49d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No $3 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 65d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No $20 65d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $20 65d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $50 65d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $100 66d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 70¢ $120 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.22 · official $207.22 (match) · 88 history records