trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +111.7% | +91.6% | 100% | 100% | +92.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +56.0% | +41.2% | 80% | 80% | +63.0% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +17.0% | +5.9% | 64% | 64% | +12.1% |
| all | 14 | +17.0% | +5.9% | 64% | 64% | +12.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.9% | 64% | +12.1% |
| 10% | -4.3% | 57% | +1.4% |
| 15% | -13.5% | 57% | -8.4% |
| 20% | -22.0% | 57% | -17.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 47¢ | 43¢ | $140 | $127 | −$13 (-9%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $50 | $56 | +$6 (+12%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 12¢ | $30 | $24 | −$6 (-20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 20 | $150 | +$144 | +96% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $170 | +$217 | +128% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 30 | $186 | +$100 | +54% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $50 | −$9 | -17% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 22 | $150 | +$77 | +51% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 18 | $324 | −$320 | -99% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | May 01 | $200 | +$118 | +59% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | May 01 | $80 | +$51 | +64% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Apr 24 | $73 | −$73 | -100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Apr 24 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Apr 24 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | Apr 08 | $100 | +$117 | +117% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Apr 08 | $189 | +$126 | +67% |