Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb58…5d49 politics 187 markets active 15h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,951 (+2%) realized +$4,951 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%47W / 139L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,442per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$36
14 days−$72
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$166
other 35% −$193
sports 12% +$5,179
world 2% −$22
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$38
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +6.2% -3.9% 13% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 129 -3.2% -12.4% 10% 7% -8.9%
all 186 +5.1% -4.9% 25% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 11% -7.9%
10% -14.0% 11% -16.7%
15% -22.3% 10% -24.8%
20% -30.0% 10% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,131) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$7 · ×17.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.04 per $1 lost it wins $6.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$4,951
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses47 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,442
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $5,535 −$6 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,402 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2,443 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,390 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,411 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $1,704 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $2,191 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $7,669 −$11 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,825 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $6,700 −$9 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $163 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6,797 −$9 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $2,542 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,748 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $662 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $44 +$70 +158%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,472 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,014 −$4 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $53 +$56 +105%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,182 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $843 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $52 +$32 +62%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $313 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $485 +$1 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $887 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $412 15h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $413 16h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $362 20h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $362 21h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 39h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $180 40h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 41h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $238 44h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $238 46h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $222 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $279 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $279 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $288 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $288 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $810 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $811 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,175 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,177 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,105 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,107 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,303 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,305 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,169 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,290 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,292 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,083 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,084 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,227 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.55 · official $179.55 (match) · 647 history records