Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb5e…130c sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+4%) realized +$169 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$6
other 22% −$2
sports 12% +$176
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -6.0% -14.9% 30% 30% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 30% -4.9%
10% -23.1% 30% -14.0%
15% -30.5% 30% -22.3%
20% -37.3% 24% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$8 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$920
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage572d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $430 $430 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $190 $190 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $320 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $410 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $500 −$1 -0%
Utah vs. Ducks Feb 15 $8 +$8 +104%
Oilers vs. Stars Nov 04 $19 −$19 -100%
North Carolina vs. Syracuse Nov 03 $9 +$11 +117%
Jets vs. Flyers Oct 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Tigers vs. Guardians Sep 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 23 $2 +$3 +127%
Astros vs. Blue Jays Sep 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Nebraska vs. Cincinnati Sep 01 $10 +$4 +41%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Aug 28 $5 +$4 +92%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $3 +$3 +72%
Twins vs. Yankees Aug 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Jul 30 $7 +$3 +39%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 -3%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 23 $103 +$116 +113%
Thunder vs. Heat Jan 21 $104 +$100 +96%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $130 −$130 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Nov 26 $49 +$77 +156%
Kings vs. Clippers Nov 25 $24 +$30 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $190 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $320 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $410 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $410 23h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $320 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $190 23h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 23h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $300 23h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $439 23h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $440 27h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $300 27h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $180 27h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $200 27h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $220 27h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $499 27h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 33h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 33h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $500 33h
Utah vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 49¢ $8 212d
Oilers vs. Stars BUY Oilers 48¢ $19 225d
North Carolina vs. Syracuse BUY North Carolina 46¢ $9 229d
Jets vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 45¢ $4 244d
Lions vs. Chiefs BUY Lions 43¢ $7 247d
Tigers vs. Guardians BUY Tigers 58¢ $7 267d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $2 275d
Astros vs. Blue Jays BUY Astros 41¢ $3 279d
Nebraska vs. Cincinnati BUY Nebraska 71¢ $10 293d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.54 · official $919.54 (match) · 72 history records