Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CB 0xcb60…2e28 politics 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$18
politics 41% −$20
sports 9% +$9
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 121 -1.2% -10.6% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 131 -1.8% -11.1% 7% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage115d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $323 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $293 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $256 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $218 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $245 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $227 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 23 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $280 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $302 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $319 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $298 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $842 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 17h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 45h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 45h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records