Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb66…93dd crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$153 (+4%) realized +$180 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%40W / 49L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$264
world 8% −$2
other 8% −$7
finance 8% −$104
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 12% -13.7%
≤30d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 12% -13.7%
≤90d 54 -10.5% -19.1% 44% 22% -14.2%
all 89 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 30% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 30% -3.4%
10% -18.3% 28% -12.6%
15% -26.2% 25% -21.1%
20% -33.4% 22% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses40 / 49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage115d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-70%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $211 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $204 −$10 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $64 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 19 $56 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $54 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $94 −$77 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $73 +$101 +138%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $164 −$54 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 17 $49 −$35 -71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12? May 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 06 $6 +$3 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 06 $7 −$5 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 04 $0 +$1 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 04 $1 $0 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Apr 27 $12 +$11 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 12 $10 +$10 +103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 12 $13 −$9 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 09 $4 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $4 −$3 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9? Apr 08 $11 +$11 +99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $5 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $302 −$7 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $20 −$18 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? Apr 07 $16 +$15 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $17 −$4 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Apr 02 $13 −$3 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $19 +$5 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $15 −$12 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.40 · official $10.40 (match) · 710 history records