Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb67…cb63
weather · 93 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$81 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$95 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 43
Open positions13
Markets (closed)80 / 93
History coverage18d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day165.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 13 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$35
14 days−$89
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 28¢ 44¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+58%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 33¢ 30¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-44%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 91¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 72¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-54%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $72 −$8 -11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $8 $0 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? Jun 06 $165 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 06 $232 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3? Jun 06 $28 −$24 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 06 $60 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 06 $41 −$7 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 05 $43 −$13 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$4 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 03 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $167 −$64 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $23 −$13 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $46 −$8 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $186 −$12 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -88%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $11 −$7 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $93 −$61 -65%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 1? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $276 −$56 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 02 $86 −$12 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $103 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $22 −$6 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? Jun 01 $4 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $70 +$12 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $25 −$4 -17%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +5%
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $24 +$141 +577%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? Jun 01 $35 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% −$88
world 7% +$4
politics 1% −$3
other 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.3% -15.3% 50% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 80 +9.3% -1.1% 46% 9% -12.8%
≤90d 80 +9.3% -1.1% 46% 9% -12.8%
all 80 +9.3% -1.1% 46% 9% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover165.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 9% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 8% -21.2%
15% -19.2% 6% -28.8%
20% -27.2% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.75 · official $87.75 (match) · 3048 history records