Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb67…f39f crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%25W / 18L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$37
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +19.7% +8.3% 58% 56% +4.6%
≤30d 43 +19.7% +8.3% 58% 56% +4.6%
≤90d 43 +19.7% +8.3% 58% 56% +4.6%
all 43 +19.7% +8.3% 58% 56% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 56% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 56% -5.4%
15% -11.5% 53% -14.5%
20% -20.2% 49% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses25 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 51¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.46 · official $4.95 (match) · 89 history records