Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb69…361e world 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$58 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$69
14 days+$29
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$76
other 13% −$11
politics 7% −$51
tech 5% −$10
sports 4% −$24
finance 3% −$67
economics 1% −$32
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 28% -7.5%
≤30d 41 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 17% -11.9%
≤90d 82 -13.5% -21.7% 30% 18% -11.5%
all 82 -13.5% -21.7% 30% 18% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 18% -11.5%
10% -29.2% 17% -19.9%
15% -36.1% 13% -27.7%
20% -42.3% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 57
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)82 / 93
History coverage64d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $187 $195 +$8 (+4%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $65 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $37 −$7 (-16%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 5¢ 5¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 25¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+28%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$40 +139%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $358 −$22 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $302 −$25 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $631 +$24 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $16 −$9 -52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $9 −$3 -33%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $955 +$48 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $53 +$19 +36%
Japan recession in 2026? Jun 16 $65 −$31 -48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $240 −$29 -12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +133%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $80 −$7 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $164 +$16 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $176 +$54 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $278 −$25 -9%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 12 $108 −$8 -7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 09 $20 −$5 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $90 −$3 -4%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 03 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 03 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 02 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 02 $10 −$3 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $11 −$8 -69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $14 −$12 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $131 +$28 +22%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 30 $8 −$7 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $148 +$39 +26%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 26 $82 −$21 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 25 $124 −$30 -24%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? May 25 $81 −$8 -10%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? May 24 $25 −$14 -54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 24 $20 −$14 -69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $65 +$25 +38%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $83 −$9 -11%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $15 +$7 +42%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Marco Rubio be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? May 14 $3 −$3 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 14 $27 +$10 +37%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $20 −$2 -12%
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? May 13 $19 −$4 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $66 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $53 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $5 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 9¢ $10 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $6 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 9¢ $10 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 3¢ $5 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $9 21h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $11 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $10 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $126 22h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $10 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $137 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $53 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $53 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $67 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $67 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $73 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $70 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $143 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $10 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $7 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $8 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.63 · official $502.85 · 537 history records