Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

CB 0xcb6e…98ca crypto 17 markets active 4h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (2163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$232 (+2%) realized +$232 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown96%max

Avg bet$770per market

Trades / day2163.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (2163 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+1.0%	-8.6%	35%	35%	-8.0%
≤30d	17	+1.0%	-8.6%	35%	35%	-8.0%
≤90d	17	+1.0%	-8.6%	35%	35%	-8.0%
all	17	+1.0%	-8.6%	35%	35%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2163.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.6%	35%	-8.0%
10%	-17.4%	35%	-16.8%
15% ← realistic here	-25.3%	29%	-24.9%
20%	-32.7%	29%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,150) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +5% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

127.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,635 vs −$872 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.02 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$232

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$770

Trades / day2163.0

Drawdown96%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 24	$453	−$325	-72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 24	$10	+$7	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 24	$10	+$2	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 24	$307	−$307	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 24	$2,179	−$2,154	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 24	$68	+$35	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 24	$138	−$138	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 24	$954	−$954	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 24	$1,237	+$3,712	+300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 24	$2,644	−$2,573	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 24	$776	−$776	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 24	$868	−$855	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 24	$138	−$138	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 24	$135	−$135	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 24	$1,150	+$3,323	+289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 24	$1,237	−$1,237	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Jun 24	$780	+$2,727	+349%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$20	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$35	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2171 history records