Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb72…6532 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,626 (+22%) realized +$2,479 · open +$147
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -31.0% -37.6% 30% 30% +13.0%
≤30d 23 -31.0% -37.6% 30% 30% +13.0%
≤90d 23 -31.0% -37.6% 30% 30% +13.0%
all 23 -31.0% -37.6% 30% 30% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.6% 30% +13.0%
10% ← realistic here -43.5% 30% +2.2%
15% -49.0% 22% -7.7%
20% -54.0% 22% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$978) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$555 vs −$88 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5,803
Realized+$2,479
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ 64¢ $1,331 $1,330 −$1 (-0%)
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C FOKUS 75¢ 100¢ $330 $440 +$110 (+33%)
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage M80 53¢ 100¢ $44 $83 +$39 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $69 +$59 +86%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $1,941 −$198 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $1,150 −$22 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $1,160 −$22 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $1,402 −$571 -41%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $32 +$11 +34%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,626 +$1,928 +119%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen Jun 23 $172 −$171 -99%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 23 $38 −$37 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 23 $791 +$563 +71%
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $61 +$19 +31%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $234 +$210 +90%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $978 +$1,095 +112%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $32 −$31 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Whitney Osuigwe Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $93 −$91 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ $766 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 63¢ $580 1h
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Ghools Esports 34¢ $24 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America Leag BUY M80 53¢ $44 3h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 53¢ $69 3h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 75¢ $333 4h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 51¢ $1,107 5h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $540 5h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $556 5h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $610 5h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $605 5h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 63¢ $59 10h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 62¢ $360 10h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 62¢ $189 11h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 68¢ $226 11h
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner BUY LYON 74¢ $29 43h
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner BUY LYON 75¢ $3 43h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $42 45h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Yawara Esports 51¢ $2 45h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Yawara Esports 51¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Yawara Esports 51¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Yawara Esports 51¢ $3 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 45¢ $1,626 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 80¢ $172 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 62¢ $9 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 62¢ $3 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 62¢ $6 2d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 53¢ $21 2d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 53¢ $0 2d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 57¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,803.09 · official $5,824.03 (match) · 58 history records