Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb79…6a7c other 31 markets active 12h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$448 (-3%) realized −$447 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%26W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$97
14 days+$129
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$139
world 5% +$11
finance 2% +$3
economics 2% +$2
sports 0% +$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 21 -13.4% -21.6% 81% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 22 -12.7% -21.0% 82% 0% -8.6%
all 30 +9.5% -0.9% 87% 13% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 13% -8.5%
10% -10.4% 13% -17.3%
15% -19.1% 13% -25.3%
20% -27.0% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,231) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.2 per $1 lost it wins $26.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$1,244
Realized−$447
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses26 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage218d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 40¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $1,231 +$12 +1%
Alan Minda: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,231 +$12 +1%
Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,232 +$12 +1%
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,232 +$12 +1%
Tim Weah: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,232 +$12 +1%
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,232 +$12 +1%
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,233 +$12 +1%
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,233 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $521 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 10 $521 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Armenia 0 - 3 Moldova? Jun 09 $521 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $490 +$10 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Kosovo 2 - 3 Andorra? Jun 08 $495 +$5 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Gibraltar 3 - 3 Cayman Islands? Jun 07 $495 +$5 +1%
Colts vs. Chiefs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Predators Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Belarus 3 - 3 Syria? Jun 06 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $260 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $255 +$2 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Mar 12 $240 +$3 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 16 $260 +$4 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $255 +$4 +1%
Bucks vs. Spurs Feb 03 $4 +$2 +45%
Bucks vs. Kings Jan 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Titans vs. Browns Dec 17 $2 +$3 +170%
South Florida vs. Navy Nov 22 $3 +$8 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,231 11h
Alan Minda: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,231 21h
Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,232 36h
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,232 46h
Tim Weah: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,232 2d
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,232 3d
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,233 4d
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,233 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $521 10d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Nigeria? BUY No 99¢ $521 11d
Exact Score: Armenia 0 - 3 Moldova? BUY No 99¢ $521 12d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Northern Ireland? BUY No 98¢ $490 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14d
Exact Score: Kosovo 2 - 3 Andorra? BUY No 99¢ $495 14d
Exact Score: Gibraltar 3 - 3 Cayman Islands? BUY No 99¢ $495 15d
Exact Score: Belarus 3 - 3 Syria? BUY No 99¢ $495 16d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $260 91d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $255 101d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $240 124d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $260 134d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $255 136d
Bucks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $4 156d
Bucks vs. Kings BUY Bucks 69¢ $5 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,244.41 · official $1,244.41 (match) · 64 history records