Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb79…e38c sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-37%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$90
other 19% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$5
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.7% +21.9% 100% 100% +16.6%
≤30d 4 -7.6% -16.4% 75% 50% -5.5%
≤90d 10 -10.9% -19.4% 80% 30% -52.4%
all 10 -10.9% -19.4% 80% 30% -52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 30% -52.4%
10% -27.1% 10% -57.0%
15% -34.2% 10% -61.1%
20% -40.6% 10% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$52 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage93d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 72¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 5.5 Apr 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Trump post "Ass" on Truth Social this week? (March 15) Apr 18 $2 $0 +2%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 me Apr 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump post "Peace in the Middle East" on Truth Social this week? Apr 18 $3 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Apr 18 $3 $0 +12%
Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next S Apr 18 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.58 · official $59.58 (match) · 19 history records