Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcb7a…1839 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$328 (+12%) realized +$370 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$151
14 days+$281
30 days+$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$116
sports 19% +$114
tech 11% +$58
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.6% +7.3% 88% 88% +7.4%
≤30d 22 +10.8% +0.3% 64% 64% +4.2%
≤90d 22 +10.8% +0.3% 64% 64% +4.2%
all 22 +10.8% +0.3% 64% 64% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 64% +4.2%
10% -9.3% 50% -5.7%
15% -18.1% 45% -14.9%
20% -26.1% 32% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$52 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage29d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 64¢ 62¢ $192 $186 −$6 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$17 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$50 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $102 −$25 -24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$60 -59%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $102 +$64 +63%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$43 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 +$42 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $101 +$55 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 53¢ $203 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 18¢ $77 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $102 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 8d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $93 8d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 100¢ $166 15d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 60¢ $102 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $96 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $144 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $143 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 70¢ $101 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $156 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.90 · official $370.49 (match) · 75 history records