Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb7a…b4c3 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$64 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$32
politics 26% −$24
sports 14% −$11
crypto 9% −$5
economics 7% −$3
culture 6% −$9
world 4% −$4
finance 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 70 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 154 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 164 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 141
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage100d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $146 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $273 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $173 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $72 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $423 −$5 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $117 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $101 −$2 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $186 −$1 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 04 $36 −$3 -8%
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $199 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $114 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 29 $67 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $151 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $66 1h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $55 1h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $55 6h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 6h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $66 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $67 21h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $64 21h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $64 27h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 28h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 42h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $17 42h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $18 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $63 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $63 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $19 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $70 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $71 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $61 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $68 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $69 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $72 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.39 · official $65.39 (match) · 693 history records