Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb7c…b03f crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3317 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$759 (+10%) realized +$758 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%136W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3317.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3317 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 381 -51.9% -56.5% 36% 1% -29.6%
≤30d 381 -51.9% -56.5% 36% 1% -29.6%
≤90d 381 -51.9% -56.5% 36% 1% -29.6%
all 381 -51.9% -56.5% 36% 1% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3317.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.5% 1% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -60.7% 1% -36.3%
15% -64.5% 1% -42.5%
20% -67.9% 0% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$758
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses136 / 245
Open positions1
Markets (closed)381 / 185
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3317.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 92¢ 92¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 6¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $90 −$102 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$49 -4900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $201 −$204 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$196 -4900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$75 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.57 · official $43.07 · 3500 history records