Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb7e…d175 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$414 (+16%) realized +$310 · open +$104
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$425
7 days+$329
14 days+$386
30 days+$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$475
other 7% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.5% -3.7% 48% 48% +2.7%
≤30d 26 +8.4% -1.9% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤90d 26 +8.4% -1.9% 50% 50% +4.2%
all 26 +8.4% -1.9% 50% 50% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 50% +4.2%
10% -11.3% 50% -5.7%
15% -19.9% 50% -14.9%
20% -27.7% 50% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$92 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Under 48¢ 99¢ $98 $202 +$104 (+106%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $117 +$133 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 +$58 +80%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $100 +$140 +139%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $132 +$201 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$131 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $98 −$96 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$101 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $112 +$89 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $100 +$212 +213%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $116 −$114 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $100 +$114 +114%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $199 −$199 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $100 +$57 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $100 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $81 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $152 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $117 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $270 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $51 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $73 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $240 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $100 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $132 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $98 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $100 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $96 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $86 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $112 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $100 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $51 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $116 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $100 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $199 6d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $100 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $100 7d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $156 9d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.72 · official $201.72 (match) · 43 history records