Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb84…8bbd
world · 52 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$48
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,414
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions47
Markets (closed)5 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day560.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 47 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 100¢ 100¢ $758 $758 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 81¢ $662 $674 +$12 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $82 $130 +$48 (+59%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 47¢ 49¢ $98 $103 +$4 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 100¢ 97¢ $88 $85 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 91¢ 76¢ $67 $57 −$11 (-16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 97¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 60¢ 100¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+65%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 55¢ 55¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 38¢ 51¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 100¢ $2 $33 +$31 (+1898%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? No 60¢ 100¢ $19 $31 +$12 (+66%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 70¢ 100¢ $17 $23 +$7 (+42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 48¢ $31 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? No 26¢ 37¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+42%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Yes $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 58¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Edin Džeko: 4+ shots No 99¢ 72¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $4 $11 +$6 (+146%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $13 +$9 +67%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $9 $0 -5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$62
finance 27% −$2
tech 13% −$15
other 9% −$86
weather 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 14m
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 100¢ $35 26m
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 99¢ $52 27m
Edin Džeko: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $15 34m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 90¢ $5 36m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $1 46m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $96 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 100¢ $133 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.7% -19.2% 20% 20% -1.7%
≤30d 5 -10.7% -19.2% 20% 20% -1.7%
≤90d 5 -10.7% -19.2% 20% 20% -1.7%
all 5 -10.7% -19.2% 20% 20% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover560.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 20% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 20% -11.1%
15% -34.0% 20% -19.7%
20% -40.5% 20% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,413.93 · official $2,414.24 (match) · 560 history records