Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcb85…d126 world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$6
other 18% +$9
politics 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 7 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$525
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage129d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $468 $468 +$0 (+0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $52 $57 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? May 02 $517 +$5 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 17 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 12 $512 +$4 +1%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 10 $511 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $500 $0 +0%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 10 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $468 1h
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $52 17d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $517 85d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $516 97d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY No 99¢ $512 98d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 102d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $309 102d
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.78 · official $524.78 (match) · 42 history records