Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb88…28da world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4
politics 23% $0
other 21% +$2
sports 11% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 45 -0.9% -10.4% 24% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage334d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $23 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $82 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $69 +$3 +4%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $14 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? Aug 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 31 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August? Jul 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 24 $123 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 24 $23 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $25 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $25 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 82¢ $23 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $23 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $23 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $23 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.84 · official $25.84 (match) · 144 history records