Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb89…abd9 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$811 (+4%) realized +$418 · open +$393
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 51L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$10,750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$245
14 days−$245
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$208
crypto 22% +$299
sports 8% +$582
politics 4% −$280
world 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.3% -32.4% 50% 50% -64.7%
≤30d 4 -25.3% -32.4% 50% 50% -64.7%
≤90d 48 +1.0% -8.7% 56% 40% -0.0%
all 101 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 37% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 37% -4.4%
10% -28.3% 26% -13.6%
15% -35.2% 19% -21.9%
20% -41.6% 12% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$10,750
Realized+$418
Unrealized+$393
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions13
Markets (closed)101 / 114
History coverage116d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $2,002 $2,695 +$693 (+35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2,003 $2,019 +$16 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1,002 $1,860 +$858 (+86%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $2,027 $1,509 −$518 (-26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $899 $822 −$77 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1,080 $705 −$375 (-35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $650 $569 −$81 (-12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $228 +$27 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $152 $145 −$8 (-5%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $141 $143 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $51 $33 −$18 (-36%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $49 $18 −$30 (-63%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $5 −$96 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$40 +78%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 23 $250 −$244 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 24 $42 +$39 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $17 −$15 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 24 $42 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 24 $42 −$13 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 24 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET May 24 $41 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 24 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11PM ET May 24 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 24 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1PM ET May 22 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12PM ET May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10PM ET May 22 $11 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET May 20 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 +$58 +417%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12PM ET May 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11AM ET May 15 $42 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10PM ET May 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET May 15 $5 +$16 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 14 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $577 −$36 -6%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 07 $669 +$283 +42%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $500 +$206 +41%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $510 +$222 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $3,106 +$296 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $510 +$145 +28%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 −$22 -73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 62¢ $84 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $51 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $91 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $60 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $13 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $24 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $22 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $26 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $31 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $24 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $18 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,749.56 · official $10,749.56 (match) · 410 history records