Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb89…a2e8 world 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,508 (-2%) realized −$33,943 · open +$17,435
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate66%77W / 40L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,313per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$174,689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1,562
other 35% −$442
crypto 10% +$3,294
economics 3% +$450
politics 3% +$2,792
sports 1% +$391
tech 0% −$1,789
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 6% -12.5%
≤30d 40 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 10% -15.5%
≤90d 71 +0.7% -8.9% 66% 13% -10.5%
all 117 -0.7% -10.2% 66% 10% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 10% -11.0%
10% -18.8% 5% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 4% -27.3%
20% -33.8% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$6,988) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$1,053 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$174,689
Realized−$33,943
Unrealized+$17,435
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses77 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions47
Markets (closed)117 / 162
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$5,313
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 61¢ 84¢ $12,586 $17,139 +$4,554 (+36%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $13,268 $15,356 +$2,089 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 86¢ $11,038 $13,700 +$2,663 (+24%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 80¢ 98¢ $9,705 $11,929 +$2,224 (+23%)
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 99¢ $9,947 $11,420 +$1,473 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 76¢ 90¢ $9,380 $11,215 +$1,835 (+20%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $11,279 $11,056 −$223 (-2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $10,609 $10,918 +$309 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $6,033 $6,808 +$776 (+13%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $6,863 $6,742 −$121 (-2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $6,559 $6,531 −$29 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $5,827 $6,026 +$199 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $5,433 $5,167 −$266 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 84¢ $3,941 $5,046 +$1,105 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 90¢ $5,123 $4,975 −$148 (-3%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $4,887 $4,969 +$82 (+2%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $3,212 $3,546 +$334 (+10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $2,672 $2,886 +$214 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 99¢ 94¢ $2,961 $2,821 −$141 (-5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $2,346 $2,491 +$145 (+6%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 84¢ 83¢ $2,006 $1,981 −$25 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,322 $1,352 +$31 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,239 $1,335 +$96 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 81¢ $1,223 $1,293 +$70 (+6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,069 $1,112 +$43 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,146 −$120 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $294 +$106 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 24 $4,349 −$1,602 -37%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,562 +$112 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,905 +$95 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,425 +$75 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 23 $12,335 −$410 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $7,774 +$288 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,079 +$32 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,939 +$61 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $950 +$50 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,833 +$167 +6%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $97 +$3 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,176 +$24 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $179 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $1,489 −$286 -19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,452 −$367 -25%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,555 −$255 -7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $850 +$5 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $883 +$117 +13%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $9,594 +$255 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9,066 −$871 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8,845 +$382 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,121 −$2,890 -93%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14,282 −$1,527 -11%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $244 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4,553 −$458 -10%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $6,948 +$264 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,425 +$22 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 05 $6,988 −$3,288 -47%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $12,580 −$4,267 -34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18,664 +$3,312 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,419 +$567 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $5,363 −$480 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $18,382 −$2,006 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $4,411 +$228 +5%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23,049 −$2,747 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $7,729 +$363 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 30 $2,844 +$67 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 30 $556 +$102 +18%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $6,496 −$408 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 18 $12,371 +$394 +3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $16,998 −$1,803 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $5,219 +$150 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $46,638 −$943 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 13 $2,501 +$190 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $4,653 +$160 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 08 $516 −$38 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $13,825 −$2,261 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $31,796 −$1,446 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 79¢ $2 38m
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY Yes 93¢ $373 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 79¢ $35 1h
Megaquake by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $401 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2,994 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 76¢ $608 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $746 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 73¢ $74 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 73¢ $221 16h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $671 17h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $335 17h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 68¢ $408 17h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $20 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $11 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $39 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $39 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $39 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $25 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $42 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $32 18h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $850 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 54¢ $76 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 55¢ $1,622 19h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1,226 21h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $833 21h
Megaquake by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $85 24h
Megaquake by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $401 24h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $90 25h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $37 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174,689.42 · official $174,689.59 (match) · 3500 history records