Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CB 0xcb8d…5576 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$54 (-5%) realized +$24 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$21
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$6
politics 20% −$10
world 17% −$66
other 15% −$1
crypto 3% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.2% -3.9% 59% 59% -6.7%
≤30d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 53% -6.6%
≤90d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 53% -6.6%
all 19 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 53% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 53% -6.6%
10% -13.2% 42% -15.5%
15% -21.6% 32% -23.7%
20% -29.3% 32% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage14d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ 16¢ $132 $109 −$23 (-18%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ $48 $5 −$43 (-89%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 73¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $84 +$18 +21%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $40 +$9 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $58 +$6 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $22 +$56 +250%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 12 $82 −$10 -12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $28 +$3 +9%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $48 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $52 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $84 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $58 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 40h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $50 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 43¢ $72 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $25 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $52 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $48 13d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $48 13d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $48 14d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 47¢ $82 14d
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY Yes 91¢ $28 14d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.88 · official $211.88 (match) · 51 history records