Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb8d…da9d
crypto · 398 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3,453 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,813 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$154
Realized−$3,813
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses163 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions2
Markets (closed)396 / 398
History coverage168d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 396 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$458
14 days+$2,391
30 days+$2,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $53 $58 +$5 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 45¢ 0¢ $248 $0 −$248 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers Rockets 46¢ 0¢ $283 $0 −$283 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 47¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks Hawks 30¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Timberwolves 36¢ 0¢ $242 $0 −$242 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Knicks Celtics 62¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 24¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 30¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Nets Nuggets 38¢ 0¢ $617 $0 −$617 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Grizzlies 23¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 27¢ 0¢ $312 $0 −$312 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $63 +$14 +22%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $286 +$310 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $78 −$25 -32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$30 -15%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $42 +$12 +28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $49 −$14 -28%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 13 $134 −$131 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $442 −$46 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $92 −$69 -75%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $355 +$178 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $635 +$138 +22%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $195 +$122 +62%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $149 +$108 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $299 −$145 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $670 +$1,269 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $157 +$79 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $248 +$84 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $116 −$111 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $99 −$66 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $50 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $173 +$252 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $49 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $124 −$119 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $198 +$215 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $199 +$157 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $696 −$435 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $229 −$220 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $223 −$139 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $507 +$142 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 03 $144 +$288 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $149 +$62 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $108 −$104 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $181 −$173 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $92 +$48 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $191 +$571 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $50 +$65 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $99 +$110 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $79 +$7 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $319 −$312 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $336 −$329 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $61 −$36 -59%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $269 −$166 -62%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $99 +$157 +158%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $49 +$81 +167%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $218 −$164 -75%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $167 +$132 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $86 +$83 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $126 −$122 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$3,337
crypto 40% −$143
other 3% −$270
tech 1% −$35
world 0% −$23
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 3h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 13h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 89¢ $111 14h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 88¢ $110 14h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 90¢ $225 14h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 90¢ $150 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 20¢ $53 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $78 16h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $25 16h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $25 16h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 28¢ $63 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $66 17h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $53 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $99 18h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $35 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $49 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $99 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 38¢ $45 41h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $74 41h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 38¢ $89 41h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $99 44h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 46¢ $267 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $7 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% +6.6%
≤30d 52 +15.3% +4.3% 54% 50% +11.3%
≤90d 131 -24.2% -31.4% 35% 33% -21.3%
all 396 -3.8% -13.0% 41% 38% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 38% -15.9%
10% -21.3% 36% -24.0%
15% -28.9% 32% -31.3%
20% -35.9% 29% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.72 · official $153.72 (match) · 1918 history records