Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb8e…1d33 sports 443 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,056 (-6%) realized −$7,015 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%254W / 185L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$1,186est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$874
7 days−$686
14 days−$651
30 days−$1,233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$5,261
other 10% +$262
crypto 2% −$305
finance 0% −$73
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$34
weather 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -54.3% -58.6% 26% 16% -26.4%
≤30d 103 -20.6% -28.2% 48% 33% -19.4%
≤90d 315 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 40% -14.3%
all 439 -3.1% -12.3% 58% 40% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 40% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 33% -21.8%
15% -28.4% 26% -29.3%
20% -35.4% 17% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$89 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$7,015
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses254 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,186
Open positions3
Markets (closed)439 / 443
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$277
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Australia 67¢ 68¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 79¢ $58 $91 +$34 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $58 $24 −$34 (-59%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland West Indies 65¢ 46¢ $32 $23 −$10 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $23 +$17 +70%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $270 −$80 -30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $62 −$2 -2%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $588 −$123 -21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win? Jun 26 $18 +$32 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Sussex Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Luciano Darderi vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Yorkshire Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 25 $20 −$10 -50%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$83 -81%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Rwanda Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan Jun 25 $231 −$95 -41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $106 +$27 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $968 +$38 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $349 +$9 +3%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 23 $6 +$1 +10%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $34 +$16 +47%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $35 +$18 +50%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $8 −$2 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY West Indies 65¢ $33 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 24¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $11 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $34 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $31 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $1 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $5 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $1 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $3 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $3 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $1 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 68¢ $1 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 14¢ $14 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 14¢ $1 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 63¢ $69 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Sri Lanka 38¢ $75 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 55¢ $55 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 56¢ $56 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Sri Lanka 58¢ $61 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 60¢ $60 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 60¢ $3 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 27¢ $39 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 15¢ $2 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 15¢ $2 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 15¢ $10 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 15¢ $2 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.25 · official $230.25 (match) · 3500 history records