Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CB 0xcb8f…89c5 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$126per market

Trades / day6.2pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+29.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+43.2%	+29.6%	60%	60%	-7.2%
≤30d	20	+43.2%	+29.6%	60%	60%	-7.2%
≤90d	20	+43.2%	+29.6%	60%	60%	-7.2%
all	20	+43.2%	+29.6%	60%	60%	-7.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+29.6%	60%	-7.2%
10%	+17.2%	60%	-16.1%
15%	+5.8%	60%	-24.2%
20%	-4.5%	40%	-31.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +43% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +44% → late +42% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$110 vs −$157 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.05 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$526

Realized+$18

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions4

Markets (closed)20 / 24

History coverage6d

Avg bet$126

Trades / day6.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$134	$133	−$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$134	$131	−$3 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$134	$131	−$3 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$134	$131	−$3 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$151	+$60	+40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$153	+$205	+134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$152	+$111	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$151	−$150	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$38	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$50	+50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$102	+$352	+344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$31	+$69	+226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$31	+$80	+262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$121	+$69	+57%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 14	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$818	−$800	-98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$46	+$132	+286%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$111	+109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$31	−$30	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$35	26m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$34	26m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$35	26m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	22¢	$35	27m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$101	46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$31	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$72	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$31	4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$31	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$818	4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$15	4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$31	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.50 · official $526.50 (match) · 47 history records