Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CB 0xcb8f…cce3 politics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,894 (+131%) realized +$807 · open +$1,087
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$25
14 days+$47
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% +$1,174
other 5% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 33% +5.8%
≤30d 11 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 18% -4.5%
≤90d 11 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 18% -4.5%
all 11 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 18% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.9% 18% -4.5%
10% -51.1% 18% -13.6%
15% -55.8% 9% -22.0%
20% -60.1% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$17 · ×5.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,518
Realized+$807
Unrealized+$1,087
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage30d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $351 $1,178 +$827 (+235%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $79 $340 +$261 (+329%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $109 +$36 +34%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $214 −$87 -41%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $351 +$159 +45%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $18 −$10 -52%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 06 $5 $0 -8%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 25 $10 −$3 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 36¢ $503 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 4d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $144 6d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 85¢ $145 6d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 6d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $36 6d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 10¢ $104 6d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 79¢ $7 7d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $31 7d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 61¢ $102 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $3 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 8d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $31 9d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $32 9d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $30 9d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $47 12d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,517.53 · official $1,517.53 (match) · 71 history records