Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb90…b9df world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 27% +$2
tech 6% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
politics 5% $0
sports 3% −$1
weather 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.7% -5.3% 14% 14% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 25% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 25% 17% -9.0%
all 34 -2.1% -11.5% 50% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -8.9%
10% -19.9% 6% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 6% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage467d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $70 +$4 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $25 −$3 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $2 $0 -24%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $2 +$1 +82%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 25 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Adolescence: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this Mar 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? Mar 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $17 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 11 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $30 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $36 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $39 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.12 · official $58.12 (match) · 93 history records