Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CB 0xcb93…ac84 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$192 (+18%) realized +$196 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$152per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+21.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+34.3%	+21.5%	100%	100%	+13.5%
≤30d	5	+34.3%	+21.5%	100%	100%	+13.5%
≤90d	5	+34.3%	+21.5%	100%	100%	+13.5%
all	5	+34.3%	+21.5%	100%	100%	+13.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.5%	100%	+13.5%
10%	+9.9%	60%	+2.6%
15%	-0.8%	40%	-7.3%
20%	-10.5%	20%	-16.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$260

Realized+$196

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage4d

Avg bet$152

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	No	88¢	86¢	$264	$260	−$4 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$312	+$53	+17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$40	+$25	+62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$206	+$41	+20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$77	+$17	+23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$51	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	88¢	$265	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	85¢	$312	47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$40	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	83¢	$206	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	94¢	$94	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$152	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0	BUY	50¢	$62	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	76¢	$77	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.50 · official $320.50 · 12 history records