Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcb98…b473 crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,150 (+16%) realized +$4,150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%51W / 68L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$5,334
crypto 17% −$1,103
other 4% +$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 43% +5.8%
≤30d 119 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 43% +5.8%
≤90d 119 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 43% +5.8%
all 119 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 43% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 43% +5.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 40% -4.3%
15% -41.3% 39% -13.6%
20% -47.1% 38% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$75 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses51 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage6d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$20 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$48 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$38 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $83 +$62 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $166 +$161 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +65%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,699 +$468 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$20 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$52 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +79%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1,629 +$619 +38%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $7,633 +$1,409 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $4,269 +$3,389 +79%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,367 −$1,343 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $826 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $93 −$90 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $166 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $82 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 11h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 78¢ $1,699 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records