Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb9b…6df8 sports 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,483 (-8%) realized −$21,368 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%187W / 225L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$647per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$3,901est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$742
7 days−$3,333
14 days+$1,418
30 days−$10,781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$22,298
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 42% -21.0%
≤30d 185 -1.0% -10.5% 43% 42% -18.0%
≤90d 295 +3.4% -6.5% 45% 43% -16.5%
all 412 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 43% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 43% -17.0%
10% -17.6% 40% -25.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 37% -32.2%
20% -32.9% 28% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$821) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$375 vs −$414 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized−$21,368
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses187 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$3,901
Open positions2
Markets (closed)412 / 414
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$647
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $520 $480 −$40 (-8%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $80 $5 −$75 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $390 +$171 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,048 −$346 -33%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $878 +$917 +104%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $110 +$290 +264%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $550 +$420 +76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $250 +$250 +100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $488 +$762 +156%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $338 −$23 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $259 −$22 -9%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $269 +$481 +179%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $706 +$83 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $324 +$276 +85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $517 +$483 +93%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $472 +$277 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $656 −$193 -29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $134 −$132 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $283 −$40 -14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $732 +$369 +50%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $245 +$505 +206%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $679 +$421 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $630 −$630 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $788 −$652 -83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $209 −$205 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $735 −$735 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $785 −$772 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $230 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $501 +$199 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,871 −$1,033 -55%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,097 −$1,085 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,683 −$1,675 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,754 −$487 -28%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $608 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $446 −$44 -10%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $439 −$175 -40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $715 −$345 -48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $847 −$840 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $574 −$273 -48%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $406 +$644 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,336 +$764 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $648 +$402 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $193 −$22 -11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $907 +$165 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $652 −$350 -54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $331 +$219 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $124 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $472 +$578 +122%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $800 −$746 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 34¢ $333 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 46¢ $228 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 20¢ $146 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $373 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 45¢ $556 6h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,139 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $390 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $675 21h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $192 35h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 35h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $528 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 27¢ $110 2d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $439 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $62 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 41¢ $60 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $507 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 42¢ $310 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $107 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $73 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.00 · official $565.00 · 3500 history records