Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcb9d…a2d2 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+16%) realized +$44 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$7
world 36% +$33
politics 19% −$14
sports 3% $0
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +112.8% +92.5% 100% 100% +92.5%
≤30d 1 +112.8% +92.5% 100% 100% +92.5%
≤90d 13 +41.0% +27.6% 62% 62% +40.5%
all 13 +41.0% +27.6% 62% 62% +40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.6% 62% +40.5%
10% +15.4% 62% +27.0%
15% +4.2% 62% +14.7%
20% -6.0% 54% +3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)13 / 24
History coverage89d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 38¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $9 +$11 +113%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $5 +$15 +285%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -89%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 13 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $11 +$9 +79%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $3 +$7 +212%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $12 +$8 +63%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $4 −$2 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $4 +$6 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $5 43m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 44m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 39d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 46d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? SELL Yes $0 54d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 60d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 61d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 61d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 62d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 62d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 63d
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 63d
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 66d
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 69d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 69d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 75d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 77d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $10 79d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 82d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 87d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.34 · official $63.34 (match) · 55 history records