Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcba9…b674 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$217 (+7%) realized +$247 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 43% -4.7%
≤30d 7 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 43% -4.7%
≤90d 7 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 43% -4.7%
all 7 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 43% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 43% -4.7%
10% -19.7% 43% -13.8%
15% -27.4% 29% -22.1%
20% -34.5% 14% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$156 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$247
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $150 $120 −$30 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $153 −$16 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$5 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $539 −$534 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $689 +$492 +72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $503 +$114 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $405 +$176 +43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $175 −$68 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 11m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 15m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $137 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $502 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,181 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $182 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $617 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $582 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $405 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 9¢ $107 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $175 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.19 · official $124.17 · 19 history records