Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbad…c86e crypto 374 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$455 (-9%) realized −$375 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%110W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$310
14 days+$310
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$20
crypto 36% −$603
other 11% −$218
politics 6% −$169
sports 5% +$375
tech 1% −$5
economics 1% −$9
culture 1% +$10
weather 1% −$15
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2000.0% +1800.0% 100% 100% +1800.0%
≤30d 22 +74.3% +57.7% 36% 23% +3.9%
≤90d 252 -21.6% -29.1% 29% 21% -14.5%
all 362 -28.0% -34.8% 30% 23% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 23% -21.9%
10% -41.1% 19% -29.4%
15% -46.8% 14% -36.2%
20% -52.0% 11% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$375
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses110 / 252
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions14
Markets (closed)362 / 374
History coverage159d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $111 $109 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $68 −$22 (-25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 36¢ 38¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes $1 $6 +$5 (+703%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Yes $14 $5 −$9 (-67%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes $8 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes $5 $1 −$5 (-89%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $13 +$310 +2388%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 26 $61 −$59 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 24 $132 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 20? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 20? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 24 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 24 $159 −$60 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 24 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 24 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 23 $53 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 23 $53 +$26 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 23 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 23 $26 +$27 +103%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $208 +$307 +148%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 7? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 7? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 7? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $19 +$82 +442%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $14 −$18 -131%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $0 +$5 +2307%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? May 07 $0 $0 -63%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 07 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 5? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 5? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 27-May 3? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 4? May 04 $1 $0 -17%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 04 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 4? May 04 $1 +$1 +130%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 4? May 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 01 $0 $0 +49%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $6 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 36¢ $20 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 36¢ $34 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $3 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.79 · official $327.79 (match) · 2161 history records