Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbb3…74e7 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$9
world 21% +$1
sports 16% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 51 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -8.8%
10% -18.0% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage284d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $30 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $6 $0 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 -26%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 29 $7 +$10 +145%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $2 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 28 $24 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $24 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $30 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 25h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $22 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $33 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $33 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.60 · official $30.60 (match) · 174 history records