Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CB 0xcbb3…31af sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$41 (+19%) realized +$23 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%12W / 5L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit77%portable

Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+16.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+28.8%	+16.6%	71%	71%	+22.2%
≤30d	17	+28.8%	+16.6%	71%	71%	+22.2%
≤90d	17	+28.8%	+16.6%	71%	71%	+22.2%
all	17	+28.8%	+16.6%	71%	71%	+22.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.6%	71%	+22.2%
10%	+5.4%	71%	+10.5%
15%	-4.8%	65%	-0.2%
20%	-14.1%	59%	-10.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +49% → late +11% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$57

Realized+$23

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses12 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	52¢	100¢	$25	$48	+$23 (+92%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$6	$5	−$1 (-13%)
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$8	$3	−$5 (-59%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$18	+$13	+70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$15	+$7	+46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$17	+$4	+24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$8	−$8	-98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$15	+$15	+101%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$10	+$6	+60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$3	+$3	+97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$7	+$5	+73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$7	+$12	+165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$5	+108%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$7	+$7	+93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$5	+$4	+73%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$5	+$4	+79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$18	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$25	5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5	BUY Over	80¢	$17	11h
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	BUY Yes	4¢	$8	16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a d	BUY	50¢	$10	19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a d	BUY	56¢	$10	20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$8	20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-	BUY	24¢	$8	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$15	26h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$10	26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$6	45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$15	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	62¢	$10	46h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY	47¢	$5	3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$7	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$7	3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$7	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$5	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$3	4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$5	5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	14¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.56 · official $76.56 · 35 history records