Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbb4…299a politics 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,411 (+1%) realized +$1,411 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%35W / 123L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,211per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$14
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$102
other 36% +$116
sports 12% +$1,394
world 4% −$19
culture 2% −$5
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 +8.4% -1.9% 11% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 84 +4.1% -5.8% 7% 5% -9.5%
all 158 +6.8% -3.4% 22% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 13% -8.9%
10% -12.7% 13% -17.6%
15% -21.1% 11% -25.6%
20% -28.8% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,533) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$3 · ×18.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$732
Realized+$1,411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses35 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,211
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $455 $455 +$0 (+0%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $277 $277 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $305 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $334 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $312 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $353 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,108 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,547 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,545 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,306 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $71 +$113 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 04 $77 +$61 +79%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,400 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $4,258 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $551 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,110 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $997 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $5,234 −$6 -0%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 25 $86 +$28 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 24 $76 +$65 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,469 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $4,321 −$7 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,683 −$4 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,755 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $277 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $340 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $340 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $352 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $353 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $305 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $349 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $350 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $334 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $334 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $312 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $312 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $463 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $463 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $352 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $353 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $366 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $367 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,032 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,033 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,004 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,158 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,160 14d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $455 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $732.17 · official $732.17 (match) · 492 history records