Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcbb6…35cd other 24 markets active 3h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$65 (+24%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$39
other 27% +$14
sports 23% +$25
world 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +24.9% +13.0% 50% 50% +20.1%
≤30d 14 +24.9% +13.0% 50% 50% +20.1%
≤90d 14 +24.9% +13.0% 50% 50% +20.1%
all 22 +21.0% +9.4% 64% 59% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 59% +19.0%
10% -1.0% 50% +7.6%
15% -10.6% 36% -2.8%
20% -19.4% 36% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage174d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Sp Jun 14 $3 +$12 +391%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$10 +188%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 06 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $17 +$6 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 01 $22 +$18 +78%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $19 +$4 +21%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 36¢ $3 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 55¢ $5 28h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Sp BUY 20¢ $3 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $12 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? SELL No 92¢ $26 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? SELL No 95¢ $51 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 71¢ $20 130d
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? BUY Yes $1 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? BUY No 74¢ $20 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? BUY No 74¢ $20 133d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $40 134d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 74¢ $17 134d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $18 134d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $15 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 56¢ $22 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.90 · official $9.90 (match) · 40 history records