Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbbc…9044 weather 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$619 (+37%) realized +$352 · open +$267
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day120.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$704
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% +49.2%
≤30d 7 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% +49.2%
≤90d 7 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% +49.2%
all 7 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% +49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 57% +49.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 57% +34.9%
15% -16.3% 57% +21.9%
20% -24.5% 29% +9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$41 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.54 per $1 lost it wins $4.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$937
Realized+$352
Unrealized+$267
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)7 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day120.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 70¢ 82¢ $356 $416 +$60 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 12¢ 23¢ $127 $245 +$118 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $2 $63 +$61 (+3147%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $34 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 6¢ 18¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+205%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $29 +$8 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 27¢ $15 $28 +$14 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+800%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 43¢ 41¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $102 −$99 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$300 +151%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $301 +$260 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $67 −$21 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 27m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 34¢ $74 33m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 37m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 44¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 48¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 50¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 42¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $937.14 · official $931.47 (match) · 176 history records