Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbbc…ea5a politics 209 markets active 3h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$121,031 (-7%) realized −$121,085 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%110W / 98L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,136per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$496
7 days−$3,378
14 days−$3,432
30 days−$39,147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$51,025
sports 15% −$49,233
world 12% +$15,552
other 10% +$1,775
economics 5% +$11,860
crypto 4% −$43,000
tech 1% −$1,429
culture 1% −$2,439
finance 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.8% -37.3% 25% 25% -45.3%
≤30d 21 -21.9% -29.4% 24% 19% -26.0%
≤90d 24 -18.2% -26.0% 25% 21% -24.0%
all 208 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 40% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 40% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 24% -23.9%
15% -31.4% 14% -31.2%
20% -38.1% 8% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$10,000) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,557 vs −$2,953 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$121,085
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses110 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage593d
Avg bet$8,136
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 76¢ 97¢ $197 $251 +$54 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 22 $500 −$430 -86%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $194 −$66 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $2,394 −$60 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $267 +$57 +21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $328 −$61 -19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,205 −$543 -45%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $2,574 −$2,408 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,072 +$133 +12%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $103 −$54 -53%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $5,387 −$5,326 -99%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $9,673 −$195 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $48,120 −$42,776 -89%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 01 $5,908 −$50 -1%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $6,689 −$122 -2%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 01 $11,912 −$1,110 -9%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 01 $792 −$67 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10,938 +$4,503 +41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $31,407 +$11,515 +37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $37,677 +$439 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $36,222 −$1,535 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 27 $7,000 −$991 -14%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele May 21 $2,006 −$568 -28%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect May 21 $3,012 −$82 -3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $6,595 +$3,626 +55%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 16 $25,626 +$2,422 +10%
Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference? Dec 11 $750 +$139 +19%
Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference? Dec 11 $800 +$98 +12%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference Dec 11 $2,000 +$256 +13%
Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference? Dec 11 $2,743 +$378 +14%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference Dec 10 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during Decemb Dec 10 $1,499 −$17 -1%
Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $1,000 +$388 +39%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 13 $14,000 −$5,365 -38%
Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May? Jun 11 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 11 $5,000 +$526 +10%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July? Jun 10 $2,600 −$296 -11%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jun 10 $23,245 +$983 +4%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $2,000 +$453 +23%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%? Jun 05 $10,000 −$1,871 -19%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Kore Jun 05 $12,500 −$449 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%? Jun 05 $7,000 +$473 +7%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 03 $1,000 +$94 +9%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 03 $7,721 +$441 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 03 $6,000 −$822 -14%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 01 $1,000 −$716 -72%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $30,508 +$899 +3%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $56,500 −$6,091 -11%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? Jun 01 $9,000 +$571 +6%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 01 $10,218 +$2,281 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $70 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes $70 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $129 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $128 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $194 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $194 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $323 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $324 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $267 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $216 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $50 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $162 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $662 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $166 6d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes $166 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,205 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,205 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,072 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 33¢ $1,072 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $442 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $504 7d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm $29 9d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm $19 9d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm $103 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $610 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $611 19d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $455 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $457 19d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $228 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.37 · official $251.37 (match) · 1315 history records