Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbbe…337d politics 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 37% −$17
sports 5% −$42
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 +0.3% -9.3% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 129 -2.6% -11.9% 4% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×11.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage115d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $234 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $470 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $263 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $184 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $241 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $263 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $383 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $970 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $246 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $469 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $250 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $256 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $228 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $218 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 5h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 5h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 30h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 30h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 33h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 33h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 6d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $184 22d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $184 26d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $241 27d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $241 27d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 28d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 30d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 30d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 372 history records