Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcbc1…8dde
crypto · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$57 -47%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$16
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage225d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 6 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Curaçao 82¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 2? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 3? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 14? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 16? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 22? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 22? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 3? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 18? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 18? Dec 17 $1 +$2 +204%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 6? Nov 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 14? Nov 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$65
other 28% +$8
sports 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 54m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 86¢ $19 11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 3? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 3? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 3? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 22? BUY No 13¢ $1 174d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 22? BUY No 13¢ $1 174d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 22? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 175d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 21? BUY Yes $1 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 21? BUY No 12¢ $2 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 18? SELL No 76¢ $3 178d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -34.7% -40.9% 25% 25% -63.5%
≤30d 20 -34.7% -40.9% 25% 25% -63.5%
≤90d 20 -34.7% -40.9% 25% 25% -63.5%
all 23 -24.3% -31.5% 30% 30% -58.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 30% -58.6%
10% -38.0% 30% -62.6%
15% -44.0% 26% -66.2%
20% -49.5% 17% -69.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.78 · official $15.78 (match) · 65 history records