Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcbc1…99e6
weather · 460 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$36 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$170 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,996
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses433 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)440 / 460
History coverage25d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day131.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 20 History 440 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$180
14 days−$40
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $350 $354 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $351 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $350 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $267 $267 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $257 $262 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $257 $257 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $253 $254 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 94°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 14 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $157 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $23 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $396 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 14 $226 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $105 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $290 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $350 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $350 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $239 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $337 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $420 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 12 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 12 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $44 7m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $68 40m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $38 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $30 47m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $33 54m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $350 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $295 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $257 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $350 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $200 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 1% -10.0%
≤30d 440 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 440 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 440 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover131.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,996.28 · official $2,996.28 (match) · 3500 history records