Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbc2…1a14 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$334 (-21%) realized −$334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$483
7 days−$604
14 days−$604
30 days−$604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$729
sports 21% −$20
other 9% −$60
world 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 23% -58.2%
≤30d 26 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 23% -58.2%
≤90d 26 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 23% -58.2%
all 47 -38.0% -43.9% 30% 30% -58.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 30% -58.0%
10% -49.3% 30% -62.0%
15% -54.2% 30% -65.7%
20% -58.7% 28% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$37 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage167d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$99 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $109 −$105 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$40 +100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$60 +291%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 01 $50 +$54 +108%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 22 $82 −$81 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 22 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 22 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 6? Jan 07 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 06 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 04 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 03 $3 +$4 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 03 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $64 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records