Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcbc3…80f5 crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$1
culture 18% $0
sports 18% $0
other 17% −$3
crypto 8% +$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 16 -0.7% -10.2% 62% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage267d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 in April? Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 23 $57 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 05 $39 +$1 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 05 $21 −$4 -18%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $310 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 25 $310 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $310 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $311 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 25 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $58 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $70 15d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $58 67d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $57 96d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $40 226d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 74¢ $17 226d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $21 230d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $39 230d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 99¢ $1 257d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $20 257d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 99¢ $20 257d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $309 257d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $310 257d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 267d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 267d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 267d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 267d
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $310 267d
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $310 267d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $310 267d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $310 267d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $310 267d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $311 267d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $100 267d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $100 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.70 · official $126.70 (match) · 53 history records